For months, the Astros have expre sed hope theyll re-sign . wrote this afternoon that theyve made a six-year, $156MM offer supporting recent reporting from about the clubs comfort zone. Nightengale and McTaggart each suggest that Bregmans camp was hoping to land closer to $200MM at least. With a significant gap between the sides, its worth examining the organizations payroll. calculates Houstons competitive balance tax number at nearly $234MM. Thats $7MM shy of next seasons $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well into CBT territory. Even if they balk at Dalton Guthrie Jersey his asking price, theyd need to be willing to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades unle s they ship out salary. The luxury tax isnt a firm limit. Owner Jim Crane allowed the front office to push into tax territory this year. He has suggested hes if the organization feels theyre targeting the correct players. Offering Bregman a $26MM average annual value reinforces that, even if it wasnt a proposal the two-time All-Star was likely to accept. The Astros seemed to be up against their limit late last winter. Once they lost to shoulder surgery, ownership signed off on a surprising $95MM contract for . Maybe theyll eventually do the same to retain Bregman. Thatd be easier to envision if they managed to offload salary in a trade, especially since theyd face escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive years. How could they go about cutting spending? The Astros have $142MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. Theyd have a tough time moving most of those deals. Theyre not trading ($30MM) or ($15MM). Theres little incentive to sell low on ($10MM) midway through Tommy John rehab. Trading Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isnt happening. injury history means they wouldnt find a taker for his $17MM salary without paying the contract down almost the entire way. Houston cant trade any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to after releasing him. They could technically trade , who remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. No ones letting them off the hook for any part of his $11.5MM salary, though. Thats $122MM in commitments to players who have almost no chance of being moved. Of the players on guaranteed deals, the only realistic trade options are and . Caratini is making an affordable $6MM as a quality complement to behind the plate. The Astros could find a taker, but theyd probably need to subsequently commit $3-4MM to sign a backup catcher. Moving Caratini wouldnt make much of a difference in the Bregman bidding. As we noted when we named Pre sly the offseasons #14 , offloading the relievers $14MM salary is the most straightforward option. Its one the front office has . A Pre sly trade is a strong po sibility, but its not inevitable. Itd deal a hit to their bullpen, for one. Pre sly also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player. If he doesnt want to move, hes staying. That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of the biggest arbitration cla ses in the league. them for a combined salary nearing $54MM. Theyre mostly key players. Houstons arb cla s breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers). : $17.8MM : $15.8MM :$4.6MM : $1.875MM : $3.7MM : $3.3MM : $2.2MM : $4.4MM Most of those players are making between $2-5MM. Trading someone like Dubn or Meyers is plausible, but as with a potential Caratini move, its not especially consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wanted to clear significant money from their arbitration cla s, the clearest way would be to move one of Tucker or Valdez. This week, floated the idea of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker trade. To be clear, that was framed as speculation, not defined reporting that the Astros are actually considering it. Tucker and Valdez are each one year from free agency. Rome points out that theyre trending towards contracts that Crane has traditionally been reluctant to approve especially Tucker. He argues that the Astros could use one of Tucker or Valdez to add talent to a thin farm system while remaining a contender for another AL West crown. Thats especially true if the Astros use the extra payroll room to finish a deal with Bregman. Of the two, Valdez would probably be slightly easier to replace. After a terrible April, pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the 24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. showed the ability to mi s bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. could be back later in the year after losing this season to a shoulder procedure. Hes a capable back-end arm if healthy. Trading Valdez would subtract the Astros most reliable source of innings, to be sure. Yet a starting five of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and some combination of McCullers and France has decent upside. The Astros would probably need to add rotation help at the deadline for a second straight year, but it wouldnt be a disastrous group to open the season. Theyd need to be more aggre sive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they have been in prior offseasons. They could also target at least one near-MLB pitching prospect if they were to seriously consider a Valdez trade. Moving Tucker is a much harder sell. Even if the Astros dont think theres much chance theyll re-sign him, theyd take a huge downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could be a top 5-10 hitter in MLB next season. His foot injury was a source of frustration this year, but theres no way to replace the kind of production (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) theyd be losing. The outfield is already a relative weak point after McCormick underperformed this year. None of this is to say a Tucker or Valdez trade is likely. Indeed, theres no indication the Astros have given either scenario serious thought. If they find it more difficult than expected to line up a Pre sly trade, theres at least an argument for them thinking bigger to create some spending capacity. Darren Daulton Jersey